As technology evolves at a lightning pace, many professions are facing a fundamental question – will AI make actuaries obsolete? This query isn’t just about whether AI can perform actuarial tasks but also about how it might reshape the role of actuaries.
In this article, we’ll explore four potential futures for actuaries in the era of artificial intelligence, examining both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
Scenario 1 – The Doomsday Scenario
Imagine a future where actuaries, as we know them, are no longer needed. Researchers from AI Impacts and the Future of Humanity Institute suggest a 50% chance that within 120 years, most jobs could be fully automatable. This includes actuarial roles, where recent studies estimate a 21% to 52% probability of automation over the next couple of decades.
Key Factors:
- Automation Risks – Automation could significantly disrupt actuarial work, especially if tasks become more routine and less cognitive.
- Management Evolution – Actuaries may transition into roles managing AI systems rather than people. AI, akin to a summer intern today, might handle routine tasks while human actuaries oversee its operations.
While this scenario suggests a bleak outlook, it also highlights an evolving role for actuaries. Rather than becoming obsolete, actuaries might find themselves managing teams of AI bots, focusing on higher-level strategic functions rather than day-to-day tasks.
Scenario 2 – The Groundhog Day Scenario
In a more stable scenario, actuarial roles remain largely unchanged despite the rise of AI. AI might offer cost-effective solutions, but the reluctance to fully embrace these technologies could keep actuarial jobs secure.
Key Insights:
- Slow Adoption – Many organizations might hesitate to replace human actuaries with AI due to trust issues or a preference for investing in human talent.
- Quality Over Quantity – AI could reduce the amount of routine work, allowing actuaries to focus on more complex, high-quality tasks.
The Groundhog Day scenario suggests that while AI may change the landscape, it won’t necessarily render actuaries obsolete. Instead, actuaries could benefit from a shift towards more meaningful, non-routine work.
Scenario 3 – The Training Day Scenario
This scenario envisions actuaries taking on roles similar to those of data scientists, focusing on training and refining AI tools. As AI struggles with nuanced actuarial tasks, actuaries might become essential in developing and fine-tuning these technologies.
Key Developments:
- AI Limitations – Current AI struggles with complex, nuanced tasks and requires significant training to handle specialized actuarial data.
- Professional Growth – Actuaries might evolve into roles that involve training AI, requiring a blend of actuarial expertise and data science skills.
In this future, actuaries could leverage their deep domain knowledge to enhance AI’s capabilities, making their roles more valuable and indispensable.
Scenario 4 – The Judgment Day Scenario
In the Judgment Day scenario, actuaries shift towards a more socially-oriented role, focusing on the ethical and social implications of AI. As AI continues to evolve, actuaries could become crucial in managing the risks associated with its deployment.
Key Considerations:
- Ethical Oversight – Actuaries might play a key role in ensuring AI systems are used responsibly and ethically.
- Diverse Teams – Increased diversity in modeling and oversight teams could become essential to prevent biases and ensure accurate outcomes.
This scenario suggests that actuaries might pivot to roles that emphasize the human aspects of data interpretation, using their expertise to address the broader social implications of AI technologies.
Will AI Make Actuaries Obsolete? Adapting to the Future
The future is not set in stone, and actuaries have the power to shape their own destinies. Whether through adapting to new roles, focusing on high-value tasks, or contributing to ethical AI practices, actuaries can influence how AI impacts their profession.
Action Steps:
- Embrace Continuous Learning – Stay updated with the latest developments in AI and data science.
- Focus on Unique Skills – Develop skills that AI cannot easily replicate, such as ethical decision-making and nuanced data analysis.
- Engage in AI Development – Get involved in the creation and refinement of AI tools, leveraging your actuarial knowledge to enhance their effectiveness.
By proactively adapting to these potential futures, actuaries can ensure their continued relevance and impact in the evolving landscape of artificial intelligence.